Iran defies Hormuz blockade as shadow fleet exports surge to 2.1 million barrels daily
Iran has successfully increased its oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, maintaining strategic control over a waterway it has effectively closed to other regional producers. While neighboring Gulf states struggle to find alternative routes, Tehran’s "shadow fleet" continues to operate with impunity.
According to Kpler data, Iranian exports averaged 2.1 million barrels per day over the last week, surpassing February’s average of 2 million. This surge persists despite threats from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to attack any vessel attempting to transit the corridor.
The crisis pushed Brent crude prices to a peak of $120 earlier this week, before settling at $101 today. Markets remain volatile as the blockade threatens to remove 3.8 million barrels per day—over 3% of global supply—from the market.
The "friendly" protocol
The transit is sustained by a clandestine network of aging, sanctioned tankers. Many Chinese vessels now use short-wave radio to signal their alignment with Tehran, broadcasting messages in English such as: "We are a Chinese ship. We are friendly."
However, this "calculated gamble" is not without risk. Reports indicate that even within the shadow fleet, at least two tankers have been mistakenly struck by Iranian forces since the conflict began on February 28.
Corporate paralysis
While Iranian oil flows, global shipping giants remain paralyzed. A.P. Moller-Maersk currently has 10 vessels stranded in the Persian Gulf. CEO Vincent Clerc stated that operations will not resume until a ceasefire is guaranteed, emphasizing that crew safety remains the priority.
Despite President Trump’s recent pledges to provide military escorts through the Strait, no such assistance has materialized. IRGC Commander Ali Reza Tangsiri warned that any US-allied fleet attempting passage would be met with "suicide drones and missile networks."
Translation by Iurie Tataru
